Characterizing Uncertainty in Ag Systems Model Predictions of Climate Impacts

Tuesday, November 8, 2016 - 1:30pm - 2:30pm

 
Location 
University of Oklahoma
National Weather Center, Room 1350, Norman, OK
 
Presenter
Dr. Phil Alderman, Oklahoma State University
 
About the Presentation
Dynamic simulation modeling is a useful approach to understanding how agricultural systems might respond to external factors (e.g., climate) over time. Recent international efforts focused on climate impact assessment have brought renewed emphasis to the comparison of different agricultural systems models and their combination into model ensembles. To date, analyses of model-ensemble simulated results has not clearly differentiated between prediction uncertainties due to model structural differences per se and those due to parameter value uncertainties. 
 
The goals of this presentation will be to: 
  1. Introduce agricultural systems modeling,
  2. Explain its application for climate impact assessment, and
  3. Illustrate methods for quantifying different components of overall agricultural model prediction uncertainty.  
If you are interested in learning more about agricultural systems modeling or how it can be used for assessing climate change impacts, be sure to come visit our seminar on Tuesday, November 8! 
 
Questions
Contact Emma Kuster at emma.kuster@okstate.edu 
 
Pre-registration is not required; the meeting is open to the public.